Difficult Decisions
No Limit Holdem is full of difficult decisions. It is a game of hunter versus prey; Trapper versus Trapee. One of my most difficult decisions came in the Foxwoods Poker Classic in March 2007.
I had decided to enter the $2000 No Limit Holdem event with a friend. Foxwoods is generous with the starting chip counts. For this tournament, you received T7000 in chips. Levels went up every 50 minutes. Blinds started at 25-50. This was definitely a deep-stack tournament (my favorite kind).
My table was quiet. Everybody was fairly solid. About 40 minutes into the tournament, this hand went down:
I am in a later middle position (one to the right of the cutoff).
UTG makes a standard raise of 3x BB to T150. UTG+1 folds. There are two callers by the time it gets to me. I peek down at:
Well, I am curious of what the UTG raiser has. I decide to call.
The cutoff calls, and everybody else folds.
Pot: T825
The flop comes out:
Everybody checks. I feel like somebody in EP is sandbagging, so I check as well. The cutoff checks.
Pot: T825
Turn:
The first couple of people check. The guy to my immediate right bets out for T400. This looks like a weak bet where he might have a pocket pair or a weak ace. I call. The cutoff folds, as does everybody else. We are heads up.
River:
The guy to my right leads out for T800.
I raised to T2400. He promptly pushes all-in. Wow - I was not expecting that. I now have a difficult decision in front of me. I asked for information with my raise and got an answer. Now, I must try to figure out what he has.
He certainly would not push all in without a strong hand. I doubt he would put his tournament life on the line with a lone Ace. I conclude that he as a Full House - but which one? Here is the thought process that I went through at the table:
Possible Full House holdings include:
AA, AJ, A3, A7, 33, or 77.
I replayed the betting action. He limped preflop. The limp STRONGLY suggests that he does NOT hold Pocket Aces. If he had pocket Aces, with two callers in front of him, the Rockets would be vulnerable. He would have re-raised big preflop. So I can toss AA from the possible holdings.
A3/A7/AJ
Calling with A3s from a mid position is a weak call (the call would be great in a cash game, but not in a tournament). Judging by his past play, I do not think he is that bad, so I disregard that. A7s is a weak possibility, but wouldn’t he have bet the flop to see where he is with the 7 kicker? I certainly think he would. Nonetheless, A7s remains a dubious possibility. AJ - Calling a UTG raise with AJ is fairly weak (I know that I would throw away AJ to a UTG raise). The betting pattern seems to fit AJ (check the flop, bet small on the turn, all in on the river). He might have feared an AQ or AK from the UTG raiser, but lost the fear when the J hit the turn.
33/77: These two hands certainly fit the betting patterns. A call preflop with 33 or 77 in hopes of hitting a set, especially with a few callers in front of you, is a legitimate play. The check on the flop would fit 33. He would not want to scare out any worse hands.
A small bet on the turn would fit either hand. The 77 might take a stab at the pot while 33 would be trying to build the pot. The river card would have hit 77, while 33 already had the boat on the flop.
The best candidate hands are:
AJ, 33, and 77 - while A7s is a remote possibility.
This guy is a solid player, and I cannot convince myself that he played A7s to a UTG raise. It is too weak of a play for this guy.
Next, I go into the think-tank to calculate some hand distributions:
AJ: 2 remaining combinations (two unaccounted aces and one unaccounted jack)
33: 3 combinations
77: 3 combinations
I can beat six of the eight hand combinations that he probably has.
Do you put your tournament life on the line here? I have the guy covered, but I would only have about T300 chips left. On the other hand, if I bust him, I am one of the tournament chip leaders (which really means nothing in the first hour of a tournament). What a difficult decision!
As I tried to make my decision, I could not help but to think of how I played this hand like a total donkey. I SHOULD have re-raised preflop. I SHOULD have bet the flop. I SHOULD have raised the turn. Any of these bets would have given me more information to help me make my decision a little easier.
Was I capable of folding a full-house here? Given that I could beat 75% of the most likely hands against me, and considering that I thought that calling a UTG raise with AJ was weak, I made the call.
Unfortunately, he showed the AJ and I was crippled. Difficult decisions can be even more difficult when you play the hand badly and do not have the information that you need. This hand is yet another example of how calling is the WORST play that you can make.
Remember: Fold, Raise, then Call as a last resort!