Knowing Your Opponents #2
As mentioned in a previous blog post, knowing your opponents is a crucial skill in playing winning No Limit Holdem. When I sit at any table, I spend the first hour or so taking notes on all of the players at the table. Of course I will get involved in hands, but I do not like to get involved with mediocre holdings until I know how people play. Here is another situation where I knew my opponents, which guided me in how to play the hand:
General Observations
Game: 2/5 NL Foxwoods
I am in seat #9.
The button is in seat 6 (making me UTG).
Seat #8 has the largest stack at the table with about $1800. I have observed this guy, and he is by far the best player at the table (besides me of course). He always makes large raises when a weak bet comes out, and usually takes down the pot. When he plays, he is aggressive, and I have not seen him back off a pot to this point.
The only other guy who has a clue is seat #5, but he is very predictable. He plays ABC poker.
Overall, the table is loose and semi-passive (i.e. a near perfect table). There are lots of preflop limpers. If there is a raise, it usually comes from somebody in late position. What gets me, is that even though there are 3-4 limpers, the raiser only ups it to 3x BB, which quite frankly - is a wasted raise with that many people already in the pot. When you raise you MUST account for the limpers in the pot. This is yet another clue that the table plays ABC poker.
I am UTG and get dealt:
99 is not strong enough to raise with UTG because I would isolate myself against hands that have me beat. At best I would be in a coinflip situation. Since this table is passive, I should be able to call without any aggression, so I make the call. There are 5 callers behind me with no raise, which is a good result.
Pot: $37
The good news is that I flopped top set. The bad news is that there is both a flush and straight draw on the board.
Seat #7 (SB) checks
Seat #8 (BB) checks
I have two choices. I can check or I can bet. I SHOULD make a pot-sized bet with 6 players hanging around. Slow playing top set here would be very dangerous, especially with a flush and a straight draw on the board. Ideally, I would like somebody to make a small bet, then have Seat #8 do his standard large raise. I would then re-raise him. The question is, will somebody bet?
If I check in this spot, Seat #8 (who is the only player that I really need to outfox) will never put me on a set. With that board, trips would certainly bet out for fear of the straight or flush. Showing weakness here in the face of a board that shows very strong drawing possibilities might pay huge dividends later in the hand. If I decide to check, I must be willing to abandon ship should the board turn against me and the betting says my set is toast.
After weighing all of the options, I elect to make a dangerous check in an attempt to try to give misleading information to seat #8. I am hoping to check-raise Seat #8 if a bet comes out.
Seat 1: Bets $20
Seat 2: Call
Seat 4: Fold
Seat 5: Fold
Seat 6: Fold
Seat 7: Fold
Seat 8: Call
Well, that was half of what I wanted. I got a bet that clearly looks like a semi-bluff from seat 1 (50% of the pot). The problem is that Seat #8 did not make his standard large raise. Now, I have a whole new set of circumstances in front of me.
There are 3 people in the pot in addition to me.
Pot size: $100
To call: $25
What do I make of the problem so far and what action should I take?
With the betting patterns, I am not sure what seat #1 has. He could have been trying to take down the pot with a pure bluff, or he could be on a draw. If he had anything, I would have expected a larger bet. Additionally, I doubt he has an overpair because he limped pre-flop. In a mid-position, he would have raised with TT or higher. For the same reasons I am concerned, I do not think Seat #1 has a set of 5s or 4s. I put him on 88, 77, 66, 76s, 32s (less likely), or a diamond draw.
In my mind, the call from Seat #2 clearly says he is on a draw. I do not know which one, but either draw will beat my set if completed. Additionally, Seat #2 could have overcards. I discount this possibility because I feel he would have raised pre-flop (unless he holds QT or QJ, which would be a straight call). If he had any other high cards, I think he would have raised. Seat #2 is most likely on a diamond or straight draw, with a remote possibility of QT or QJ.
The call by Seat #8 is more complex. There is $80 in the pot at this point. He has 4:1 odds to call. He has the odds to call any draw here, and with 4:1, he would be getting the odds to call with overcards. He just makes the call. Seat #8 is aggressive. I think if he had the straight draw, he would have raised to try to chase out poor flush draws (not a bad strategy). If Seat #8 has a flush draw, I think its either the Ace or King High flush. I am putting Seat #8 on two high cards (AJo, KQo, KJ – any stronger overcards would have warranted a pre-flop raise, which he did not do, that is unless he is trying to throw me off. But, I do not give him THAT much credit).
My reasoning for playing the hand like I did has not changed. I want to show weakness. If I check raise here, I have blown my cover. All of the previous points I made before are still valid. I want people to think I am on a draw. Seat #8 will know that I am getting 5:1 odds to make the call, and I should call with anything reasonable. A call indicates that I have a draw. If I make a hefty raise, he knows I have something strong. But, now I have another option in front of me. I can effectively make a minimum raise to $50. The three other players would surely make the call because of their excellent odds. A min raise here would be seen as a check-raise, but the question remains that if I do that, will the other people still see it as a check-raise and fold? All in all, I decide to just call because I do not want to blow my cover just yet. I hold my breath and call.
Pot: $120
Turn:
WHEW! I let out my breath 
Note that this is one of the best cards that I can get. It could hit some of the holdings that my opponents might have. It did not complete either the flush or the straight.
Seat #8 now leads out with a $55 bet. Although in terms of the pot, this bet is very weak (about 1/3 of the pot), this indicates to me that he has hit one of his overcards. The puzzling thing is why he did not bet the pot, or even half the pot. If he has AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, or J9 he must think he has the best hand. His bet certainly says he thinks he has he best hand. Still puzzling is he made a bet that give people the odds to call on a draw. Why would he do this? The only reason I can find for this weak bet is that he is unsure of his kicker. Even then, he should be making a larger bet. Oh well, his mistake. The last possibility is that he holds JJ and has hit his set. However, looking back at the betting, JJ is highly unlikely because there was no preflop raise, and he check-called the flop).
My dilemma is do I now raise, or do I smooth call? I am 99% confident that I have Seat #8 beat. If I call, then Seat #1 and Seat #2 will be getting at least 4:1 on their draws. That is sufficient because they are on a 4:1 draw. I seriously consider raising here, but I take a deep breath and pause. At this point, I do what any poker player SHOULD do. I look left to see if I can get any tells from the other 2 players. They are both holding their cards like they are going to fold them. I wonder if they are giving off false tells. Nah, that are not that sophisticated. I think they will fold, and that will leave me heads-up, in position, with Seat #8, which is just what I want. I call the $55 bet. True to their tells, Seat 1 and Seat 2 fold. I am now heads up with a player that I know I am pretty sure is drawing dead. If a jack comes on the river that gives him a set, then I will fill up to a full house. If he has pocket jacks and hits the case Jack to make quads, well then, I just got unlucky.
This call really confused Seat #8. You can tell by the look on his face that he expected to take that pot down right there with the $55 bet. He was baffled and asked why I made that call. My confidence is high. I am no longer worried about the straight or flush draw, and I am sure he is putting me on the same draw I was afraid of.
Pot: $230
River:
Another jackpot card. If Seat #8 holds KJ, then he just made 2 pairs. Additionally, there are no straights or flushes on the board.
Seat #8 bets out $50.
I am certainly going to raise here. The question is, do I push all in for my remaining chips, or do I make a value raise? I want a call, so I make a standard raise to $150. Seat #8 is in a quandry. He does not know what to do. He thinks and thinks and thinks. At this point, I KNOW I have the best hand. If he had a hand that would beat me, he would call immediately, if not raise. He looks over and eyes my chips intently. I am hoping he will bet to put me all in. After much deliberation, he simply calls. I show him the trips. He shakes his head, mucks his hand, and says “well played”. I never put you on a set. I take down a $530 pot.
Showing weakness early on was definitely dangerous, but it worked out, this time that is. . .