Pushing a Draw Late in a Tournament
Tuesday, January 29th, 2008A friend convinced me to play in a tournament the other week. This tournament was the “big one”. This place has weekly $60 tournaments, but the last Monday of every month, there is a $100 tournament. The “big one” attracted 15-20 players, and according to my friend, the skill level was pretty good. I have confidence in my ability, and I like to see how I compare to the competition, so off we went. I picked up my friend and we carpooled to the event.
We arrived and I was introduced to the people who run the tournament. They seemed nice enough. I paid my entry fee and soon the cards were in the air. This week, the “big one” attracted fifteen people. The first four places were paid with first getting $580 and fourth getting $172. Overall, this is pretty good, as 25% of the field was getting paid.
I was seated at table 2 seat 3. The first three levels lasted 30 minutes and we started with T9000 in chips. I played very carefully and of course, I scrutinized the competition like I always do. I quickly noticed that they were not really all that good. Nobody was totally lost, but I would classify my table as between loose-passive and tight-passive. There was no aggression at the table. Passive tables are a dream come true. It is relatively easy to figure out where you are at passive tables.
I found myself getting either trash hands or extremely good hands. I only had a couple of marginal hands like suited connectors. It was a roller coaster ride because I would win a large pot, then within a few hands, I would lose a large pot. I fluctuated between T5000 and T15,000 for quite awhile. After about 2 hours of playing, five people had busted out, and we had the final table. I do not know if this was considered good, seeing that 2/3 of the field made the final table. Regardless, I was there with about T12,000 chips.
At the final table, I had to size up some new players. There was definitely more aggression at this table, so I had to proceed with a little more caution. A lot of poker players forget to adjust to the new table texture when they are moved - but I try not to make that mistake. My first test came with blinds at 500/1000 with a 100 ante. A tight player in Mid Position raised to T3000. There was one caller. I look down at:

Big slick had been my demise this evening. I literally had it 6 times and I lost 5 of them (the one time I did not lose, I made a continuation bet on the flop and the enemy folded). I did not like Big Slick this evening. Nonetheless, I had to push. I had T9000 and pushed it all into the center. The original raiser called as did the guy in mid position. The flop came:

Cool - I flopped top pair + top kicker.
I do not remember what the turn and river were, but I know that my hand held up and I raked in a pot of about T29,000. Woo Hoo!
A short time later, I was up to T38,000 when this hand happened.
Blinds: 1000/2000 + 300 Ante
Players: 7 left, top 4 are paid
I am on the button
UTG calles T2000, as does a guy in Mid Position. I have:

I have the big blind, UTG, and the guy in Mid Position all covered. The Small Blind and I have similar stacks. UTG is a loose cannon. He will play anything. The guy in MP is a weak-tight player. I think the correct play here is to raise to drive out the blinds and try to get heads-up. Since there are two limpers, the raise needs to be at least T10,000 (three times the big blind + T2000 for each caller). This is a significant portion of my stack. I probably have the other two guys beat. If they have a hand the beats ATs, they would have raised. I am confident I can outplay them on the flop, so I elect to just call. The small blind folds and the Big Blind (my friend) checks his option.
The flop comes:

My friend in the Big Blinds pushes all-in for T8000. UTG calls and Mid position folds. This is an interesting problem. UTG has another T5000 behind him after the T8000 call. My first instinct was to call, but calling is usually the worst option you can make. So, should I fold or raise? My thought process was like this:
The pot now has about T27,000 (T11,000 preflop and T16,000 more after the all-in and call). It costs T8000 call. I have 9 outs to make the flush. But what the heck is he betting on with a flop like that, and more importantly, what the heck is UTG calling with? Certainly that flop should NOT have hit somebody UTG. If UTG has an overpair, wouldn’t he have pushed all-in on the flop? The only thing that makes sense is a smaller flush draw, or a pair + straight draw (64, 54, or 43). I am also unsure what the BB has. He would certainly push all-in with any pair on a board like this. If the BB happened to flop the straight, then he cannot possibly improve anymore (except for the remote possibility of a straight-flush), so I have 9 outs twice to beat him. He might also have a hand like a pair + a straight draw. In the case of the pair + straight draw, I have 6 additional outs. If I hit an Ace or a Ten, I have a winner as well. In the best case scenario, I have 15 outs, and in the worst case, I have 9. I am getting 3:1 on a 4:1 draw to hit on the next card, and 2:1 to hit by the river. If I miss the flush on the turn, and UTG goes all in for his remaining T5000, there would be T40,000 in the pot. I would be getting 8:1 odds on a 4:1 draw. So, as I see it, the chips are going in regardless. If I could possibly get UTG to fold, then I could save myself T5000 if I miss my draw and I lose the hand. Calling is way to weak in this situation. I push all-in and I hear a few gasps from the table. There is now T45,000 in the pot and UTG is getting 9:1 odds for anything he has. He MUST call, but to my surprise, he folds (a huge mistake on his part). This is exactly what I was hoping for! The BB shows:

For middle pair and a gutshot straight. I am in better shape than I thought. I have 15 outs. The turn is:

which completed my flush and sealed the win.
Most people would have only called in the spot with the nut flush draw. By analyzing the situation correctly, I was able to save myself a possible T5000 if my draw missed. Some people might argue that I could have eliminated two people by calling. Yes, this is true, but by having UTG fold, he left himself in a bad situation - with only T5000 chips and the tournament short-stack. I had over T50,000 in chips and it was only a matter of time until this guy busted out.