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One of the ultimate poker questions that will stir more debate than anything is:

As a poker player, are you able to ever fold AA preflop?

A little different, but subject to even more debate is:

Is there a situation where you SHOULD fold AA preflop?

As is with most poker questions, the answer is, “it depends”. This question is a LOT different than my blog post where I wrote about folding pocket QQ preflop. With QQ you might be beat. With AA, you know that you are NOT BEAT - at the moment.

In a cash game, anybody would be hard pressed to ever convince me that laying down “Pocket Rockets”, “American Airlines”, “Bullets”, or “Missiles” preflop could be correct. For cash games, I am firmly on one side of the fence.

How about in a tournament? Here, the commonly asked question goes like this:

You are in the World Series of Poker Main Event and in the big blind. On the first hand of the tournament, everybody folds to the small blind, who pushes all-in. You have pocket aces. Do you call or fold?

This question is an extreme. Certainly, nobody in their right mind would push all-in preflop for T20,000 chips to win T75. It’s stupid, and I think just about every poker player would agree to that. But as is with a lot of poker examples, extremes are presented to illustrate a point - and I can appreciate this extreme question. Are you capable (or even willing) to ever fold AA preflop in a tournament? I am not going to comment on this specific situation, because the point of this blog post is not to debate whether folding AA in the big blind on the first hand of the WSOP is correct. I am here to talk about a different situation.

In my last blog post, I wrote about how I was fortunate enough to be going to the WSOP this year. I have not given up on trying to win a seat into the main event. I played in the PokerStars 200 seat guarantee and came up short (2000 out of 8000). I have been toying with the steps, but I have not had any success. I also have been playing in the weekly freerolls. What the heck, right? Its free, why not?

Having played in four of them already, I knew that these tournaments move fast. Typically about 3000 people enter them. The top 50 players get an entry into Round 2 - which is where they give away three free seats. Enter my situation:

Tournament: PokerStars $1M WSOP Giveaway, Round 1

Starting Stack: T1500

Players: About 1500

Players Left: 76

Average Chipstack: About T29,000

My Chipstack: T59,000

Blinds: T2,000/T4,000 + 200 Ante

Before I go any further, lets analyze this.

Players:

There are 76 people left. The top 50 advance to round two. Twenty-six more people must bust out. The remaining 50 people will win a round two seat.

Chipstack:

I have twice the average. Looking at the leader board, I see that I am in 8th place. There are a lot of people under T10,000. With blinds at their current levels, there are a lot of short stacks.

Tournament Composition:

If you have ever played in any of these freerolls, you know that the players are aggressive. A lot of them are low-stakes players who like to think that they are good. When a short-stack goes all-in, there is usually no shortage of people willing to try to take them out.

My Strategy:

I have more than enough chips to fold to the money - which is a seat in the next round. I decide that no matter what, I am going to fold. I click on “Sit Out Next Hand” - until I see

in middle position. Instinctively, I click off the “Sit Out” button. One guy calls and the action is on me. What do I do? Certainly, I have the best hand. I have the largest stack at the table, but there are a couple of people who could really put a dent in my chip count (~T35,000 - T45,000). I want to raise and play the hand. The question is, do I deviate from my strategy to play the hand, or do I fold? If I fold, I virtually guaranteed to win a seat in the next round. If I play, I am risking my (almost) guaranteed seat.

I ponder this for a minute. I can possibly take somebody out, or I can wait for other people to do the dirty work.

I ask myself, “Why am I playing in this tournament?”

The answer is simple enough: “To win a seat in the next round. ”

Does it make sense to risk your (almost) guaranteed seat when there are plenty of other people who are willing to do the dirty work for me?

BEEP

As I get to this point in the analysis, the PokerStars timer beeps at me. I have twelve seconds to make a decision. Do I deviate or do I stick with my game plan?

If I deviate, then I can either limp (to try to trap) or raise to take control of the hand.

BEEP

Why would I risk the prize that I was playing for in order to be macho and try to flog my opponent?

BEEP

In a regular tournament, this situation is a no-brainer. RAISE. The more chips you have, the better chance you have to make the final table, and hence a better payout.

BEEP

In a satellite, your only goal is to win the seat in the next round.

BEEP

First place pays the same as 50th in this tournament

BEEP

Three seconds left.

I click “Fold”, stand up, raise my arms over my head in victory, and shout, “I love this game”.

Three hands later, I was in the second round.

This entry was posted on Saturday, June 21st, 2008 at 1:48 pm and is filed under Online Poker. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.