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I live about half way between Foxwoods and Turningstone. I always seem to get to Foxwoods, but I have never ventured the other way into New York. I decided to go out there and give it a shot. It did not take any longer that it did to get to Foxwoods. The casino is right off the New York State Throughway. It is pretty easy to get to.

As I pulled in, I scoped out the building. It looked pretty big. I parked and went inside. My plan was to walk around and get a lay of the land - and of course to find the poker room. After a bit, both objectives were accomplished.

I was somewhat disappointed to find only 30-40 tables, and only 10-15 or so were active. The highest game was a 5/5 NL game with a $500 Max buy-in. I decided that I was going to play this game. Overall, the level of play was very good. There were probably seven people at the table who I would peg as solid. Among the other three, there was usually a mix of people who were alright and people who were clueless. If you get more than two or three solid players at a table, it can make for a long night. Needless to say, this was going to be a long weekend.

Several hours into my session I have $650 in my stack and pick up

in an early position. I make it $25 to go. The button calls as does the big blind.

Pot: $80

The flop brings:

This is a jackpot flop - I have the absolute nuts. However, there are several draws that might be out there. The most obvious is the spade flush draw. Secondary is QJ for an open-end straight. Still less obvious but possible hands are AQ, AJ, Q9, and J9.

I have observed the button to be a decent and quite aggressive player. He was not afraid to raise in the face of weakness. Several times through the evening, I saw him reraise weak bets and take down the pot right there. As the Big Blind checked, I analyzed the situation.

If I lead out with a continuation-sized bet, the button will not know where either one of us are. He might see it as a continuation bet and reraise. If he totally missed the flop, he might fold. Also, he might smooth call with any kind of draw. He is capable of any of these plays. Since we had not previously tangled, and I had seen him attack weak bets on several occasions, I decided to make a probe-sized bet. Hopefully the bet will be interpreted as weak, and he will attack. I lead out for $30 into the $80 pot.

The button ponders for a second and decides to raise. I have set the trap, and he has fallen for it. He makes it $130 to go. The Big Blind immediately folds. Back to me.

I have a couple of choices here. I can smooth call or I can raise. I analyzed both plays.

Calling: This play will let him take control of the hand. If I call, then I would check-raise the turn all-in. The problem is that if I call, then there is $340 in the pot on the turn. He will certainly make at least a half pot-sized bet of $170,and more likely a pot-sized bet if he himself is afraid of the flush. Knowing that I only have $495 left, he knows that I will be pot committed pretty quick. More than likely, he would just push all-in himself regardless of his holding. If a card comes that completes a straight or flush (or both), I have a really difficult decision on my hands. In this scenario, he has done what any good poker player should do - he has put the decision on his opponent (which would be me). I do not like the prospects of the call in this situation.

Raising: I have $595 left ($650 - $ 25 preflop - $30 flop). The pot contains $240 ($80 preflop + $30 my bet + 130 button’s raise). If I raise, I need to make it 3x his last bet, which would mean pushing $390 into the center. This would leave me with $215 and essentially pot-commit me. If I am going to raise, it has to be all-in. He could have raised as a semi-bluff. If I come over the top, he would be hard-pressed to make the call. The only holding that he can profitably call with in that spot is precisely QJ of spades (giving him an open-end straight-flush draw). Knowing that calling is a bad move, it seems like raising all-in is the best option here.

I move all-in. The Button immediately calls. I like his hole cards:

The cruel pokergods reared their heads on the turn when the

landed.

In a final good gesture, the button said, “I never put you on pocket kings. But, I do hope you get the case king on the river.” Doing so would have given us the bad-beat jackpot worth over $30,000. But alas, the poker gods were not on my side.

This is the first time in a live game that I lost to a one-outter.

Was I mad? No, not really. Replaying the hand from his point of view, I would have done the same thing. Raising the preflop raiser with bottom set and two spades on the board is a reasonable play. I certainly would have called my all-in as well. He had a 4% chance to improve to quads, and unfortunately for me, that 4% was due to hit.