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I like it when people are predictable. What good poker player doesn’t? The easiest players to read are the ones with betting pattern tells. I ran into such a player at Foxwoods one day. I dubbed him “Mr. Math”.

Most people feared “Mr. Math”. They thought that he was an extremely good player.  I analyzed his play as soon as I heard people talking about how good of a player he was.  I quickly learned that you could read his hand by the amount that he bet. Mr. Math knew pots odds very well.  He would bet the numbers 100% of the time.  He would never, never, ever bet an amount that gave you correct pot odds to chase whatever draw was out there.  I observed this several times with a high degree of accuracy.

Location: Foxwoods

Game: 2/5 NL

My Stack: $600

The table is a normal mix of weak, loose, tight, and solid.  Mr. Math was in seat #10.

Hand:
The button is in seat #5.  I am in seat #3 (The Hijack position)

Seat 8: Fold
Seat 9: Fold
Mr. Math: Raise to $25
Seat 1-2: Fold

I know that this guy is feared at the table. People will most likely fold. I peek down and see

 

I am not fearful of a raise behind me. People get out of his way, so I am confident we will be heads up.  I decide to call for deception. As expected, everybody else folds. We are heads-up, and I am in position.

Pot: $57

Flop:

 

This appears to be a decent flop for my Aces.  Mr Math makes a pot-sized bet of $60.  He has SOMETHING, and whatever it is, he is definitely afraid of the flush draw.  My analysis went like this:

With his preflop raise, he could have trips, AJs, or even an overpair at this point. If a diamond comes, I might be able to make a play at the pot.  I put his range of hands as JJ, 77, AJ, or possibility, QQ, or KK.  I could be beat, but I could also have the best hand.  When in this situation, the best thing to do is raise, as it gives you the most information.  The problem with raising is, what do I do if he comes back over the top?  He would certainly make that play with JJ or 77.  Would he reraise with AJ (Top Pair Top Kicker) or an overpair?  I really do not know the answer to that question.  I have picked apart his betting tells, but I have not figured out what kinds of hands he would make this kind of a bet/raise with.  If he does come back over the top, then I have a very difficult decision to make.  One pair is not a particularly good hand to go to showdown with.  Since I know he is capable of laying down a hand on a dangerous board, I elect to make a smooth call the $60.  If a straight card or diamond falls on the turn, my plan is to make a play at the pot. The best card to help my cause would be a 8, 9, or 10 of diamonds - making the board dangerous.

Pot: $177

Turn

Mr. Math bets $50.

He just offered me pot odds of 4.5:1 with a flush draw on the board.  He does not fear the flush anymore.  I am beat, as he just filled up.  His most likely holding is 77. If he had JJ, he would have checked.

Tossing the rockets is pretty easy here.  I want him to show his hand so I can test my read.  I meekly say, “I think you have 77.  You would have checked Jacks, and you would not have raised preflop with threes.”

As I fold, I show ONE of my aces.  Mr. Math grins and proudly shows 77 for his full house – I was right on the money.

Staying focused in a tournament can sometimes be a difficult chore. I usually have very good concentration and stay attentive to the task at hand. However, sometimes I falter and towards the end of the day. During a recent trip to Atlantic City, I found myself in a $120 tournament at The Tropicana with 88 other hopefuls.

Mid way through the tournament, I had Top Pair-Top Kicker on a Q86 rainbow flop. The guy to my immediate right bets. I would like to find out where I am, so I raise.

He pauses, and says, “One of us is going home”, then he pushes all-in.

I ask the dealer for a count because I want to see his reaction to my possible call. The guy flips over his cards and shows 66 (trips). I say “Good hand”, and muck my cards. He thought that I had called. I think to myself, “Thank you for not being focused.”

As fate would have it, later in that exact same tournament, I was in the BB. The blinds were T1000/T2000 with a T200 ante. I had T19,000 chips with 3 limpers. I peek down at:

I check my option.

Pot: T10,000

flop:

I see a flush draw and check without thinking. My plan is to check-raise all-in. The next guy bets T15,000. Seat 2 seat thinks and thinks. I show my hand to Donna. At that time I realize that I am open-ended on top of the flush draw. Shoot - I wish I had taken my time before I checked. If I had realized that I was open-ended as well as having a flush draw, I would have pushed all-in to begin with. Seat 2 finally goes all-in. The SB folds, and I have to push all my chips in. Seat 8 calls. We have a 3-way all-in.

seat 8 shows:

for the flopped straight.

Seat 2 shows

for 2 pair

I show my open-end straight + flush draw.

Turn:

River:

I lose to a full house. Had I had pushed all-in on the flop, Seat 8 surely would have either called, or even more likely, would have come over the top. Seat 2 might have got away from his 2-pair. I cost my self the pot and my tourney life by not being focused. What goes around, comes around.

If that were not enough, later that night, I was playing in a 2/5 nl cash game at Ballys with a $1000 buy-in. There were 4 players at the table who were very loose and pretty bad. Around 3am, I get involved in this hand:

There are 6 callers to me in the bb. I have:

This is the kind of hand that I like to play in the BB.

Pot: $70

The flop brings:

Wow! I flop the nuts with a backup flush draw and a gutshot straight-flush draw! I check to let somebody else lead out. Seat 8 (bad player) checks. Seat 10 (a good player) then goes all-in for $250. Everybody folds to me and I call. The dealer says, “Flip them up.”

I oblige and seat 10 shows

At that point, I realize that seat 8 (who was a real bad and loose player) was still in the hand. He meekly folds his cards while I realize that he was going to call. If I had paid attention, I would have won another $1000.

Bottom line: You MUST pay attention at all times. If you are tired and are having trouble staying focused, perhaps it is time to walk away from the table for awhile.