Trouble in Paradise
I like it when people are predictable. What good poker player doesn’t? The easiest players to read are the ones with betting pattern tells. I ran into such a player at Foxwoods one day. I dubbed him “Mr. Math”.
Most people feared “Mr. Math”. They thought that he was an extremely good player. I analyzed his play as soon as I heard people talking about how good of a player he was. I quickly learned that you could read his hand by the amount that he bet. Mr. Math knew pots odds very well. He would bet the numbers 100% of the time. He would never, never, ever bet an amount that gave you correct pot odds to chase whatever draw was out there. I observed this several times with a high degree of accuracy.
Location: Foxwoods
Game: 2/5 NL
My Stack: $600
The table is a normal mix of weak, loose, tight, and solid. Mr. Math was in seat #10.
Hand:
The button is in seat #5. I am in seat #3 (The Hijack position)
Seat 8: Fold
Seat 9: Fold
Mr. Math: Raise to $25
Seat 1-2: Fold
I know that this guy is feared at the table. People will most likely fold. I peek down and see
I am not fearful of a raise behind me. People get out of his way, so I am confident we will be heads up. I decide to call for deception. As expected, everybody else folds. We are heads-up, and I am in position.
Pot: $57
Flop:
This appears to be a decent flop for my Aces. Mr Math makes a pot-sized bet of $60. He has SOMETHING, and whatever it is, he is definitely afraid of the flush draw. My analysis went like this:
With his preflop raise, he could have trips, AJs, or even an overpair at this point. If a diamond comes, I might be able to make a play at the pot. I put his range of hands as JJ, 77, AJ, or possibility, QQ, or KK. I could be beat, but I could also have the best hand. When in this situation, the best thing to do is raise, as it gives you the most information. The problem with raising is, what do I do if he comes back over the top? He would certainly make that play with JJ or 77. Would he reraise with AJ (Top Pair Top Kicker) or an overpair? I really do not know the answer to that question. I have picked apart his betting tells, but I have not figured out what kinds of hands he would make this kind of a bet/raise with. If he does come back over the top, then I have a very difficult decision to make. One pair is not a particularly good hand to go to showdown with. Since I know he is capable of laying down a hand on a dangerous board, I elect to make a smooth call the $60. If a straight card or diamond falls on the turn, my plan is to make a play at the pot. The best card to help my cause would be a 8, 9, or 10 of diamonds - making the board dangerous.
Pot: $177
Turn
Mr. Math bets $50.
He just offered me pot odds of 4.5:1 with a flush draw on the board. He does not fear the flush anymore. I am beat, as he just filled up. His most likely holding is 77. If he had JJ, he would have checked.
Tossing the rockets is pretty easy here. I want him to show his hand so I can test my read. I meekly say, “I think you have 77. You would have checked Jacks, and you would not have raised preflop with threes.”
As I fold, I show ONE of my aces. Mr. Math grins and proudly shows 77 for his full house – I was right on the money.