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I like it when people are predictable. What good poker player doesn’t? The easiest players to read are the ones with betting pattern tells. I ran into such a player at Foxwoods one day. I dubbed him “Mr. Math”.

Most people feared “Mr. Math”. They thought that he was an extremely good player.  I analyzed his play as soon as I heard people talking about how good of a player he was.  I quickly learned that you could read his hand by the amount that he bet. Mr. Math knew pots odds very well.  He would bet the numbers 100% of the time.  He would never, never, ever bet an amount that gave you correct pot odds to chase whatever draw was out there.  I observed this several times with a high degree of accuracy.

Location: Foxwoods

Game: 2/5 NL

My Stack: $600

The table is a normal mix of weak, loose, tight, and solid.  Mr. Math was in seat #10.

Hand:
The button is in seat #5.  I am in seat #3 (The Hijack position)

Seat 8: Fold
Seat 9: Fold
Mr. Math: Raise to $25
Seat 1-2: Fold

I know that this guy is feared at the table. People will most likely fold. I peek down and see

I am not fearful of a raise behind me. People get out of his way, so I am confident we will be heads up.  I decide to call for deception. As expected, everybody else folds. We are heads-up, and I am in position.

Pot: $57

Flop:

This appears to be a decent flop for my Aces.  Mr Math makes a pot-sized bet of $60.  He has SOMETHING, and whatever it is, he is definitely afraid of the flush draw.  My analysis went like this:

With his preflop raise, he could have trips, AJs, or even an overpair at this point. If a diamond comes, I might be able to make a play at the pot.  I put his range of hands as JJ, 77, AJ, or possibility, QQ, or KK.  I could be beat, but I could also have the best hand.  When in this situation, the best thing to do is raise, as it gives you the most information.  The problem with raising is, what do I do if he comes back over the top?  He would certainly make that play with JJ or 77.  Would he reraise with AJ (Top Pair Top Kicker) or an overpair?  I really do not know the answer to that question.  I have picked apart his betting tells, but I have not figured out what kinds of hands he would make this kind of a bet/raise with.  If he does come back over the top, then I have a very difficult decision to make.  One pair is not a particularly good hand to go to showdown with.  Since I know he is capable of laying down a hand on a dangerous board, I elect to make a smooth call the $60.  If a straight card or diamond falls on the turn, my plan is to make a play at the pot. The best card to help my cause would be a 8, 9, or 10 of diamonds - making the board dangerous.

Pot: $177

Turn

Mr. Math bets $50.

He just offered me pot odds of 4.5:1 with a flush draw on the board.  He does not fear the flush anymore.  I am beat, as he just filled up.  His most likely holding is 77. If he had JJ, he would have checked.

Tossing the rockets is pretty easy here.  I want him to show his hand so I can test my read.  I meekly say, “I think you have 77.  You would have checked Jacks, and you would not have raised preflop with threes.”

As I fold, I show ONE of my aces.  Mr. Math grins and proudly shows 77 for his full house – I was right on the money.

People get too married to hands. All too often, a person gets a good starting hand, and they get tunnel vision. They call or raise all the way to the river. When they turn over the losing hand, they curse at how lucky the other person got.

People like this are wonderful to play against. When I first sit down at a table, I look for these types of players - people who overplay weak hands. I make it a point to get involved in hands with them.

On the flip side, you have to know when to lay down a big hand when the board goes against you. I will be the first to admit - it is never fun to lay down pocket Aces. If the betting tells you that you are beat, then you MUST lay them down. When most people get pocket Aces, they start seeing dollar signs and prematurely count their winnings as the hand is being played out. Then when they lose the pot, they are furious. We have all heard them and their rants.

“How could you call with that hand? You are terrible!”

The important thing is to take a deep breath, step back for a minute, and examine the betting that has taken place. Here is one example where I read my opponent accurately.

Location: Foxwoods, 3/28/2007

Game: 2/5 NL

Stack: $800

Scenario: This was a very tough table table. The guy to my immediate right (seat #2) won a seat into the Foxwoods Poker Classic Main Event in the ACTs ($10,000 seat). By observing him, he is a pretty solid player. He knows the game. I am unsure of how advanced he is in terms of psychology. There is another person two seats (seat #5) to my left who is a very solid player as well. There are no real weak links at the table. I would classify everybody at least as a Advanced, with a few experts. Knowing that everybody is on this level forces you to play differently than at a wild loose table where most people think they are better then they actually are.

I am UTG and look down again at:

I make a standard 5x BB raise to $25.

Seat 4 calls
Seat 5 (Mr. Solid) calls

Everybody else folds.

Pot: $82

Comments: The whole table is solid. I have no real reads on Seat #4. I know Seat #5 is a tough player.

Flop: J 5 2 with 2 clubs

I need to fear the flush draw here. I should make a pot-sized bet to deter them from drawing at the flush. I make it $75 to go

Seat 4 folds
Seat 5 calls

Pot: $225

This call is peculiar. The board is fairly uncoordinated. Seat #4 folds, while Seat #5 calls a pot-sized bet. I am now on yellow alert.

Turn:

I am still fearful of the flush draw. That is about the only draw that can be out there. There is no way seat #5 would call a preflop raise with 43s or 86s for a straight. I make another pot-sized bet of $200. Again, seat 5 calls

I am now on Red Alert. Something is fishy. Seat 5 is better than chasing a flush draw for two pot-sized bets. If he has AJ, he would surely want to protect his Jacks from an overcard and would have raised - probably on the flop. Would he have played J7, J5, or J2? No way. He is too solid – that is unless I am giving him too much credit.

River:

Well, if he was playing a jack, I just got beat. Since I am on red-alert, I check. I know what he is going to do - he pushes all-in.

I lean back, take a deep breath, and think it though. What makes sense? He called a preflop raise of 5x BB with 2 people in the pot (myself and seat 4 who called as well). He called pot-sized bet on the flop and turn, then pushed all in on the river. He knows better than to chase a flush with bad odds. I can rule that out. Straights are out. The only thing that makes sense is pocket 22 or pocket 55 (pocket Jacks are unlikely, but I still lose to them). I am fairly confident that he has a full house at this point.

I say to him, “you must have a full house. That is the only thing that makes sense. I do not know if you have pocket 2s or Pocket 5s, but I know you have one or the other”. I fold my pocket rockets and SHOW them. Most of the table gasps at how I can fold rockets here. He smiles says, nice read and nice laydown, and then shows 55 – just as I thought.

When the betting does not make sense, all you have to do it step back and look at it from an outsiders perspective. Knowing he would not chase a flush without the odds, I could logically deduce that he tripped up on the flop. Unfortunately, I lost $300 to figure that out (but I did not lose my whole stack). Even if a Jack had not hit the river, there was no way I was putting any more money in the pot. I would have folded to any bet on the river no matter what card had fallen. It was pretty obvious that I was beat - and I made the laydown.

One bit of advice that I picked up somewhere along the line was, “Never be afraid to fold. The next hand is never more than about 2 minutes away.” This advice is so true!

I was playing in a pretty juicy 2/5 NL game in Foxwoods. The players were the typical ones you get at this level. They knew enough to be dangerous, but they all played A-B-C poker. I love people who play A-B-C poker. They are pretty easy to outwit. When you do bust them with an implied odds call, they go off on you, calling you a donkey for making such a terrible call. I love it when people go off on me.

In this game, the guy to my immediate left would call all-in bets with merely bottom pair. He was the dream opponent. I just hoped that I could get to his money before somebody else did. As luck would have it, I was able to bust him when this hand went down:

I am in MP and get

I limp, hoping to get a bunch of callers. There are 6 callers (including me).

Pot: $30

The flop arrives:

I have an overpair, plus a gutshot straight. I figure that I should lead out with a strong bet to see where I stand. I bet $25. The guy to my left thinks and thinks. His buddy (who is standing directly behind him) says, “He is trying to steal. Call him.” He does just that and throws another $25 into the pot. Everybody else folds.

Pot: $80

Turn:

Sweet! I have the straight, and no flush will be possible. The only hand that beats me is 87. Again, I must bet to see where I stand, so I lead out with another $50. The guy to my left thinks and calls (without prompting from his friend).

Pot: $180

River:

This COULD be the jackpot card. If he has a King in his hand, he will certainly call any bet here, and possibly go all in. I am pretty confident that he does not have 87. He is pretty aggressive and cannot hold back. He would have raised the turn to get more money into the pot.

I lead out with $100.

Again, his buddy chimes in. “He is stealing! Don’t let him do it. Call him down.”

I am laughing inside. I hope he does call. After about 20-30 seconds, the guy announces, “All-in”

The 30 second pause tells me that he does not have 87 because, most likely, he would have insta-called, or even insta-raised all in. I call, he shows T6o, and I take down a $750+ pot.

I wish all my opponents had buddies to talk them into calling with a 4 card-straight on the board.

Many of my poker playing buddies cannot believe that I have never cashed in a Live Multi-table tournament. I have cashed in online multi-table tournaments, online sit and gos, and live sit and gos. Don’t get me wrong, I love live tournaments. But I dislike tournaments that do not favor skill. When you start with 2000 chips, 50/100 blinds, and the 20 minute levels, it makes for a rather quick tournament. You are at the mercy of the cards, and all good poker players know it. Why do you think main events on the World Poker Tour feature at least 60 minute levels with a large starting chipstack? As a consequence, I do not play in a lot of live tournaments because the casino is only interested in moving the tournament along and getting the next one in.

There are exceptions to the rule, and one of the most prominent one is in the weeks leading up to a World Poker Tour $10,000 buy-in event. Casinos will usually hold a series of tournaments in the weeks prior to the main event. In these events, you are usually given a larger chipstack with blind levels lasting anywhere from 40-60 minutes. Foxwoods hosts two World Poker Tour events per year. In the spring is the Foxwoods Poker Classic, while in the fall is the World Poker Finals. I do not like to play in fields that are large either (in excess of 900 people), so I tend to buy into the $2,000 events. The fields are usually about 200-400 in size, which is a perfect number. The field is beatable, but not so large that it is a lottery. This year, I decided to change things up a little bit. Instead of playing in the $1,500 or $2,000 event, I decided to play in what Foxwoods calls a “Modified Shootout”.

In the Modified Shootout, there are two qualifying rounds, and a final round. You can play in either qualifying round where you essentially play a sit-and-go. Unlike a traditional Shoot-Out where you must WIN the table to advance, in this modified shootout, you only have to make the top 3 at the table to advance to the finals. In other words, you play a Sit and Go, and if you would normally place in the money, you get an entry to the finals. The finals is played as a normal multi-table tournament.

It sounded intriguing, so I played in the $300 shootout on October 21. I was fortunate enough to place in the finals without having to buy in a second time. There were about 1400 players in the shooout with 411 players in the finals and the top 120 were paid. You started with 5000 chips and blinds were 40 minutes long. This is more of the structure that I like. I was card cold and literally only had 2 hands to play. Regrdless, I lasted to about 190th place - about 70 shy of the money. If I had any sort of “normal distribution” of cards, I am pretty confident I would have made the money.

The next week featured another modified shootout, but the entry fee for this one was $600. The only difference was that in this event, the blinds were 50 minutes long in the finals instead of 40 minutes. I decided to give it anther shot. Again I was able to make it to the finals fairly easily.

At 4pm all the winners converged in the Sunset Ballroom to start the finals. I played my normal tight-aggressive tournament style and it paid dividends. I just held my ground while slowly increasing my stack size. The number of players kept dwindling. We started with 165, then there were 140, then 120, then 100. It felt good to crack the century mark. I watched the screen as we flew past 90, 80, 70, and then 60. At 60 players, play got REALLY tight. We were getting close to the money and everybody sensed it. Everybody went back to A-B-C poker. I played my hands aggressively, and watched the tournament clock display. 55, 50, 49, 48. The top 40 were paid. I knew I could make the money if I was patient. I had to keep telling myself, “I will not bubble, I will not bubble”. I have bubbled so many tournaments, it is pathetic. It took about an hour to get from 50 players to 40, and it was quite a grind. That hour felt like it was actually 8 hours. When we got down to 41 players, the tournament was played hand for hand. We lasted all of four hands before somebody busted out and we were all in the money! Hooray! I had overcome the bubble jinx.

Players fell rather quickly after that. We were down to 30 people in a matter of about 30 minutes as the short stacks started to push. I was playing solid poker and I knew I could go a lot deeper. The next moneyline was at 27 players. There were 29 left when I had this hand came up. I was in the cutoff with about 30,000 chips. It was folded to me and I had:

The people to my left were moderate stacks, so I knew they would not want to tangle without a good hand. The blinds were 600/1200, so I popped it to 3600. The button and small blind both fold. The big blind has 7000 chips, and he thinks and thinks. His face is twitching. He starts a motion to push all in, then stops. He does this 2 more times. I know he is weak, but probably has me beat. Finally, he says that he has to make a stand and he pushes all in. Grrr, I wanted to pick up the blinds. I ran the pot odds, and I was getting 3:1 on the call. I look at him and said, “You caught me with my hand in the cookie jar, but I have the pot odds to call”. I made the call. he shows:

I really do not know what he was thinking. He KNEW I was going to call regardless. I think he made a mistake here, but that was his decision.

The board came:

And I took another player out.

At the 12:30 curfew we were down to 23 players. The average chipstack was about T40,000. I had about T25,000. I was mentally exhausted. I needed sleep.

The next morning, I woke up around 9:30 ready to go. I could not wait. Finally, noon came around and the tournament was off and running. The tournament short stack was to my immediate right. He had T4500. The blinds started at 1000/2000 with 200 antes. As expected, on the first hand, the short-stack pushes all-in. He is called by the big blind who shows:

While the short stack shows:

The short stack spiked a King on the river to stay alive. Mr. Short Stack now has T12,000. He promptly pushes all-in on the next hand. I look down at:

This is a tough spot. I don’t like to call for half of my chips here. The next money line is 2 spots away (at 21 players left). There are 4 players to act behind me. I must push all-in to isolate or fold. After thinking, I decided to fold. Everybody else folded. I keep replaying this one in my mind. If I had T40,000, I would have probably called. He most likely has an overcard in this spot, and perhaps two. I had a bad feeling, so I laid it down.

Once we hit 21 players, they started to fall left and right. It seems like every hand we were losing a player. We redrew for seats at 20. The next money line was at 18, and above 18, the prizes kept increasing every spot. We lost 4 immediately, and we were down to 16 and this hand came up. UTG who has about T28,000 chips raises to T8000. Everybody folds to me. I see:

Oh, this is nice. Since I only have T18,000, its an easy all-in push. Unfortunately, the call was easy for the other guy and he shows:

What a time to run into cowboys! The board came:

and I was busted out in 16th place. I won $2,406, but more importantly, the bubble monkey is now off my back.

It feels good to cash in a live multi-table tournament. This was my sixth event. I definitely learned a LOT an gained a LOT of valuable experience from this. It will better prepare me for future tournaments.

The results of the tournament are here.

A good friend of mine also pointed out to me that since I cashed in a “tracked event”, I now have my own Cardplayer.com page, which is right here. How cool is that? Lets hope that I add more and more events to this page!