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As mentioned in a previous blog post, knowing your opponents is a crucial skill in playing winning No Limit Holdem. When I sit at any table, I spend the first hour or so taking notes on all of the players at the table. Of course I will get involved in hands, but I do not like to get involved with mediocre holdings until I know how people play. Here is another situation where I knew my opponents, which guided me in how to play the hand:

General Observations

Game: 2/5 NL Foxwoods

I am in seat #9.
The button is in seat 6 (making me UTG).

Seat #8 has the largest stack at the table with about $1800. I have observed this guy, and he is by far the best player at the table (besides me of course). He always makes large raises when a weak bet comes out, and usually takes down the pot. When he plays, he is aggressive, and I have not seen him back off a pot to this point.

The only other guy who has a clue is seat #5, but he is very predictable. He plays ABC poker.

Overall, the table is loose and semi-passive (i.e. a near perfect table). There are lots of preflop limpers. If there is a raise, it usually comes from somebody in late position. What gets me, is that even though there are 3-4 limpers, the raiser only ups it to 3x BB, which quite frankly - is a wasted raise with that many people already in the pot. When you raise you MUST account for the limpers in the pot. This is yet another clue that the table plays ABC poker.

I am UTG and get dealt:

99 is not strong enough to raise with UTG because I would isolate myself against hands that have me beat. At best I would be in a coinflip situation. Since this table is passive, I should be able to call without any aggression, so I make the call. There are 5 callers behind me with no raise, which is a good result.

Pot: $37

The good news is that I flopped top set. The bad news is that there is both a flush and straight draw on the board.

Seat #7 (SB) checks

Seat #8 (BB) checks

I have two choices. I can check or I can bet. I SHOULD make a pot-sized bet with 6 players hanging around. Slow playing top set here would be very dangerous, especially with a flush and a straight draw on the board. Ideally, I would like somebody to make a small bet, then have Seat #8 do his standard large raise. I would then re-raise him. The question is, will somebody bet?

If I check in this spot, Seat #8 (who is the only player that I really need to outfox) will never put me on a set. With that board, trips would certainly bet out for fear of the straight or flush. Showing weakness here in the face of a board that shows very strong drawing possibilities might pay huge dividends later in the hand. If I decide to check, I must be willing to abandon ship should the board turn against me and the betting says my set is toast.

After weighing all of the options, I elect to make a dangerous check in an attempt to try to give misleading information to seat #8. I am hoping to check-raise Seat #8 if a bet comes out.

Seat 1: Bets $20
Seat 2: Call
Seat 4: Fold
Seat 5: Fold
Seat 6: Fold
Seat 7: Fold
Seat 8: Call

Well, that was half of what I wanted. I got a bet that clearly looks like a semi-bluff from seat 1 (50% of the pot). The problem is that Seat #8 did not make his standard large raise. Now, I have a whole new set of circumstances in front of me.

There are 3 people in the pot in addition to me.

Pot size: $100

To call: $25

What do I make of the problem so far and what action should I take?

With the betting patterns, I am not sure what seat #1 has. He could have been trying to take down the pot with a pure bluff, or he could be on a draw. If he had anything, I would have expected a larger bet. Additionally, I doubt he has an overpair because he limped pre-flop. In a mid-position, he would have raised with TT or higher. For the same reasons I am concerned, I do not think Seat #1 has a set of 5s or 4s. I put him on 88, 77, 66, 76s, 32s (less likely), or a diamond draw.

In my mind, the call from Seat #2 clearly says he is on a draw. I do not know which one, but either draw will beat my set if completed. Additionally, Seat #2 could have overcards. I discount this possibility because I feel he would have raised pre-flop (unless he holds QT or QJ, which would be a straight call). If he had any other high cards, I think he would have raised. Seat #2 is most likely on a diamond or straight draw, with a remote possibility of QT or QJ.

The call by Seat #8 is more complex. There is $80 in the pot at this point. He has 4:1 odds to call. He has the odds to call any draw here, and with 4:1, he would be getting the odds to call with overcards. He just makes the call. Seat #8 is aggressive. I think if he had the straight draw, he would have raised to try to chase out poor flush draws (not a bad strategy). If Seat #8 has a flush draw, I think its either the Ace or King High flush. I am putting Seat #8 on two high cards (AJo, KQo, KJ – any stronger overcards would have warranted a pre-flop raise, which he did not do, that is unless he is trying to throw me off. But, I do not give him THAT much credit).

My reasoning for playing the hand like I did has not changed. I want to show weakness. If I check raise here, I have blown my cover. All of the previous points I made before are still valid. I want people to think I am on a draw. Seat #8 will know that I am getting 5:1 odds to make the call, and I should call with anything reasonable. A call indicates that I have a draw. If I make a hefty raise, he knows I have something strong. But, now I have another option in front of me. I can effectively make a minimum raise to $50. The three other players would surely make the call because of their excellent odds. A min raise here would be seen as a check-raise, but the question remains that if I do that, will the other people still see it as a check-raise and fold? All in all, I decide to just call because I do not want to blow my cover just yet. I hold my breath and call.

Pot: $120

Turn:

WHEW! I let out my breath

Note that this is one of the best cards that I can get. It could hit some of the holdings that my opponents might have. It did not complete either the flush or the straight.

Seat #8 now leads out with a $55 bet. Although in terms of the pot, this bet is very weak (about 1/3 of the pot), this indicates to me that he has hit one of his overcards. The puzzling thing is why he did not bet the pot, or even half the pot. If he has AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, or J9 he must think he has the best hand. His bet certainly says he thinks he has he best hand. Still puzzling is he made a bet that give people the odds to call on a draw. Why would he do this? The only reason I can find for this weak bet is that he is unsure of his kicker. Even then, he should be making a larger bet. Oh well, his mistake. The last possibility is that he holds JJ and has hit his set. However, looking back at the betting, JJ is highly unlikely because there was no preflop raise, and he check-called the flop).

My dilemma is do I now raise, or do I smooth call? I am 99% confident that I have Seat #8 beat. If I call, then Seat #1 and Seat #2 will be getting at least 4:1 on their draws. That is sufficient because they are on a 4:1 draw. I seriously consider raising here, but I take a deep breath and pause. At this point, I do what any poker player SHOULD do. I look left to see if I can get any tells from the other 2 players. They are both holding their cards like they are going to fold them. I wonder if they are giving off false tells. Nah, that are not that sophisticated. I think they will fold, and that will leave me heads-up, in position, with Seat #8, which is just what I want. I call the $55 bet. True to their tells, Seat 1 and Seat 2 fold. I am now heads up with a player that I know I am pretty sure is drawing dead. If a jack comes on the river that gives him a set, then I will fill up to a full house. If he has pocket jacks and hits the case Jack to make quads, well then, I just got unlucky.

This call really confused Seat #8. You can tell by the look on his face that he expected to take that pot down right there with the $55 bet. He was baffled and asked why I made that call. My confidence is high. I am no longer worried about the straight or flush draw, and I am sure he is putting me on the same draw I was afraid of.

Pot: $230

River:

Another jackpot card. If Seat #8 holds KJ, then he just made 2 pairs. Additionally, there are no straights or flushes on the board.

Seat #8 bets out $50.

I am certainly going to raise here. The question is, do I push all in for my remaining chips, or do I make a value raise? I want a call, so I make a standard raise to $150. Seat #8 is in a quandry. He does not know what to do. He thinks and thinks and thinks. At this point, I KNOW I have the best hand. If he had a hand that would beat me, he would call immediately, if not raise. He looks over and eyes my chips intently. I am hoping he will bet to put me all in. After much deliberation, he simply calls. I show him the trips. He shakes his head, mucks his hand, and says “well played”. I never put you on a set. I take down a $530 pot.

Showing weakness early on was definitely dangerous, but it worked out, this time that is. . .

Knowing your opponents is one of the most crucial things in any poker game. If you study them and know what cards they play, how they play in certain situations, and how much they bet when they have certain hands, you will have a huge advantage when you play against them. This knowledge can be used to manipulate them unmercifully.

Consider this hand I had at a 2/5 NL table at Foxwoods.

Scenario: I had been playing for about 90 min. I am in seat #5 with about 550 in chips. The button is in seat #3, making me the Big Blind.

Seat 6: Fold
Seat 7: Fold
Seat 8: Min-raise to $10
Seat 9: Fold
Seat 10: Call
Seat 1: Fold
Seat 2: Call
Button: Fold
Small Blind: Fold

I look at

There is $37 in the pot, and I need to put in $5 more to call. I am getting 7.5:1 pot odds here, so making the call is automatic.
Before I go further, here is my take on the table.

Overall, it has been a fairly loose-aggressive game. There are two guys at the table who are constantly raising and reraising with marginal hands (seat 7 and 3). Individual player knowledge goes as follows:

Seat #7: Extremely loose-aggressive player, however, he is NOT in the hand.

Seat #8: A fairly decent player who recently took a bad beat and lost all of his chips. He has just bought in again for $500. He has been at the table about the same amount of time as I have. He is quiet. His betting patterns suggest that he has a good command of the game.

Seat #10: This guy is like the Rock of Gibraltar. This guy is VERY VERY tight. I think I have seen him play two or three hands in the 90 minutes I have been there. I have been listening to his banter since I sat down. Although he is NOT obnoxious, what he says tells me that is a very strong, solid, and knowledgeable player, just like seat #8. The rock has about $900 in chips

Seat #2: He likes to socialize a lot. He has the largest chip stack at the table with about $1,600. Like the three other players in the hand, he knows what he is doing.

So, as it stands, there are 4 people in the pot, all of whom are knowledgeable and solid players.

Pot: $42

Flop:

This was a fairly good flop for me. I have a flush draw. I elect to check to see what the other people are going to do.

Seat 8: Bets 50, about the size of the pot.

Seat 10: Thinks for a minute, and raises to $150.

Seat 2: He is visibly disturbed. His anger is genuine (i.e. he is NOT acting to give off a false tell). He think and thinks and thinks and talks to himself. Finally he raises to $450.

This is an interesting situation. The key to the analysis is knowing that the four players in the pot are both knowledgeable and straight-forward players.

Lets analyze the action preflop.

Seat 8 min-raises. Min raises are tough. If the player is solid, it means they have a monster hand. If they are a weak player, it does not mean a whole lot - they could be on a wide variety of hands. Not having seen him really mess up, lets say he is an average player. What would an average player raise with in this spot? He would make this play with any pair down to 66 (AA, KK, QQ, JJ are unlikely because he probably would have put in more than a min raise, but we will keep them in the possibility list for now). Certainly up for consideration is AK, AQ, AJs, ATs, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JT and some other random hands. That is a pretty broad range.

Seat 10 calls the min raise. Knowing seat #10 is VERY tight and using the GAP theory, we can narrow his holdings somewhat. He would make this call with pocket pairs from AA down to 88, maybe 77. Unpaired cards might be AK, AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs (weak). I highly discount the possibility of AA, KK, QQ because the guy would probably reraise to try to isolate the person in EP. His most likely cards are JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, AQ, AJs, KQs, KJs, and perhaps some mid-range suited connectors.

Seat 2 calls. This call is peculiar. However, he could be playing position and hoping to flop a monster. He is getting almost 3:1 for his call. Those are decent pot odds preflop, so he could have a wider variety of cards. Pocket pairs from AA down to 55, any two cards over T, and any suited connectors down to about 54s.

Now, lets analyze the action on the flop.

I am in a bad position I check to see what everybody else is going to do. This play is reasonable.

Seat 8 bets the pot, which is about $50. The question is WHY did he make a pot sized bet? The obvious answer is that with three other people in the pot, he does NOT want to give anybody the pot odds to draw at the flush. So, we can rule out seat #8 as being on a flush draw (betting the pot on a draw is a very bold move, and one that I did not think this player was capable of making). So with the pot sized bet, what could he have? He might have flopped the straight (KT or T8). T8s is unlikely from his position, but he might be trying to protect a KTo, which is reasonable. He could also have flopped trips (QQ, JJ, 99) or two pair with QJ (possible), Q9 (less likely, but possible), J9 (possible). Lastly, he might have an overpair (KK or AA), but by his small preflop raise, this is unlikely.

Seat 10 raises to $150. This bet tells you a lot too. If you are going to raise, the standard amount is 3x the last bet. Seat 10 does not disappoint in that regard. To raise a pot-sized bet, he MUST have something good. With a threatening board like this, seat 10 would dump 2 pair given his tighness. Also, by raising to $150, you can logically deduce that he has a completed hand and is afraid of (at least) a flush draw. He does not want to allow any other players to have the odds to draw at that hand. Now, what does he have? Seat 10 might have a straight (T8 or KT), trips, (QQ, JJ, or 99), or an overpair (KK or AA). We can rule out the AA and KK due to his preflop call. I also do not suspect he has QQ because he did not raise preflop. Seat 10 most likely has T8, KT, JJ, or 99 with no flush draw.

Seat 2 then thinks and thinks and thinks. He is visibly disturbed. His emotions are genuine. He then raises the previous raise by 3x, which is $450. Raising in the face of a pot-sized bet and then a 3x raise again tells me he must have a strong hand, and he is NOT on a draw. What might seat 2 have? He does not have T8. If he had T8, he would be afraid of KT and would have simply called, or more likely folded. He probably has a set or the KT. Best guess: QQ, JJ, 99, KT with no flush draw.

Now, back to me. With the betting thus far, I can logically deduce that no players have a flush draw. I am very confident of this. I am not afraid of somebody who has made a straight because they cannot improve further. However, if somebody did flop 2 pair (seat 8 ) or trips (seat 10 and 2), then I have to worry about the board pairing, this giving them a full house. The only other possibility I am afraid of is runner-runner diamonds so that somebody makes a larger freak flush.

There is no calling in this situation. It is push all in or fold. What do I do? Lets look at some math.

If I push all-in, my hand odds are 1.9:1 to make the flush by the river, and I am guaranteed to see two cards if I do in fact push. Would seat #2 call my all-in? His initial bet (pot-sized) indicates that he has a strong hand. He shoved $500 in the pot a few hands ago, so he is not afraid to put his money out there. That is a good thing for me. Would seat #10 call a $550 bet? His $150 bet indicates that he would. With a strong hand, he would be getting good pot odds at this point. Seat 2 would certainly put in an extra $100. With seat 10 and 2 making the call, I would be getting the required odds to push all-in. If I knew if seat 8 was going to call as well, I would be getting about 3:1 money odds on a 2:1 draw. Seems like an easy choice.

The things against me are that there might be some diamonds out. This flop has obviously hit all four of us. If anybody hit trips, then there is a good chance that some of my diamonds are gone. If two are gone, I am a 2.6:1 underdog to make my hand by the river. I still have the necessary odds to push all-in if I know all three players are going to call.

This is a tough decision. In a tournament, this hand is an easy fold. In a cash game, you must push small advantages. The decision is closer than one might guess.

In the end, I decided to fold not because I did not think I had a good betting proposition, but rather I had only been at the table for 90 min and I did not want to walk away if I lost.

As the hand turned out, the other three people were all-in. Seat 8 showed Q9 (2 pair), seat 10 showed 99, and seat 2 showed QQ ! All four Queens and Nines were OUT and I had no fear of a full house (barring a runner runner pair). The turn was a 7 of diamonds. Had I called, I would have taken down a $2,000 pot.

Playing in a game where everybody is a good player can be a lot of fun. You might not be the best player in the bunch, but you can still come out a winner. Deception and manipulation can be used with a high degree of success. Good players can see when inconsistencies arise and will lay down a good hand when they feel that they are being trapped. I had the pleasure of playing in one of the toughest games I have ever played in at Foxwoods when I had this hand:

Game: 2/5 NL Cash Game
Stack: $400

Scenario: Extremely tough table table. I am in seat #3. The guy to my immediate right (seat #2) won a seat into the Foxwoods Poker Classic Main Event ($10,000). By observing him, he is a solid player. He knows the game. I am unsure of how advanced he is in terms of psychology. There is another person two seats to my left who is a very tight solid player as well. There are no real weak links at the table - which is unusual. There are usually 3-4 semi-clueless people in any 2/5 NL table. I would classify everybody at least as advanced, with a few experts. Knowing that everybody is on this level forces, you to play differently than at a wild loosey-goosey table where most people think they are better then they actually are. This kind of table is fun.

Button is in seat #8.

Seat 1 / UTG: Fold
Seat 2: Raise to 25

I peek down at

Normally, a raise is in order. If I simply make a call, I am inviting people after me to call. They would be getting at least 2:1 on their money. However, the table is overwhelmingly solid. Knowing a raise came from an Early Position should deter the limp-fest that normally occurs in weak games. I need to play with deception at this table - it will be noticed. Ideally, I would like everybody to fold so I will be heads-up against the original raiser. I elect to make a semi-risky smooth call.

Seat 4: Fold
Seat 5 (another Mr. Solid): Call
Seat 6: fold
Seat 7: Call
Seat 8: Fold
SB: Fold
BB: Fold

Pot: $107

This is not exactly the result I wanted. There are four people are in the pot. The rockets are vulnerable, and I need to proceed on yellow alert.

Flop:

Seat 2 leads out for $100 - a pot-sized bet. I have $375 left in my stack.

A raise is order. I need to fear a hand like KJ or J9s – both of which are possible. Judging by Seat 2’s pot-sized bet, he is afraid of the same thing. His most likely holdings are KK, QQ, AQ, or KQs. QT and 33 would not be in the pot from an early position.

You could make a case either way for him, having TT.

If he has trips, would he want to check-raise? The answer is “doubtful”, because he risks a check around the table. This is a high possibility since he showed the preflop aggression. A free-card would be extremely dangerous for him.

Because of the size of the bet, I must put him on some type of hand, not a draw. If he had a draw, then I would have expected a continuation-sized type of a bet.

I am also worried about the other two people behind me. If I call here, they have the odds to draw at anything. A raise is the only play. The question becomes how much do I raise? The standard raise is 3 times the last bet. If I raise to $300, then I leave myself with only $75. Seat #2 will know this and see I am pot-committed and may fold. A good player recognizes when the bet of player will commit them to the pot. If he sees this, then he can safely assume that I am going to put in my remaining $75. He can then factor that into his decision of whether to play the hand or not. Seat 2 is capable of this analysis.

The problem is if I min-raise to $200, then the stacks behind me might be tempted to play if they have a drawing hand. This is a situation where my stack size is a hindrance to my betting. The choices I have left are raise to say maybe $250 or push all-in. The raise to $300 and the all-in push are equivalent because of the logic above. If seat #2 has AQ, I certainly want a call. If he flopped trips, then I just got unlucky. If I bet $250, it still leaves me with some chips, and essentially pot-commits me, but to a lesser degree.

Action: I decide to raise to $250.
Seat 5 folds

Seat 7 agonizes. He moans that he wants to call. He looks at me and says “for $100 I would have called”. This leads me to believe that he has that draw that I was fearful of (KJ or J9s). He reluctantly folds.

Seat 2: Thinks for a minute then pushes all-in.

Comments: This was a good result for me. I am pretty sure that I have Seat #2 beat. I do an insta-call.

Seat 2 asks if I have a set. I say no- do you?. He says, no, a pair of Queens, and he flips over AQ. Perfect! I show AA. He is surprised and says, “I never put you on AA because you did not raise pre-flop.” I told him that I did not raise preflop because I did not want to give my hand away.

He smiled and said, “Well played.”

The turn is a 2 and the river is an 8. After the river, Seat 7 says that he indeed did have J9s and would have rivered a straight. Knowing how much to bet and when to bet it is an integral part of No Limit Holdem Strategy!

When I play, I never try to appear cocky, arrogant, overconfident, or otherwise better than other players. I firmly believe in Karma. If you act like you are the best player around, then Karma will come back in full force. The cards spank you and make you beg for mercy. On the flip side of the coin, I love to humble opponents who are obnoxious. One of my best spankings came while playing 2/5 NL at Foxwoods.

I had been playing at this table for perhaps an hour. I made the standard buy-in for $500. Over the hour, I increased my stack to about $900. I was in a Mid Position when I looked down at:

Since nobody was in the pot, I decided to raise to $20. An Asian guy called. Everybody else folded. This Asian guy had on a hat and sunglasses, and he acted like he was better than everybody else. I did not like him for that exact reason. The flop came down:

I lead out with a continuation bet of half the pot. The Asian guy called. Barring an Ace, I am done with the hand - and even then, I must proceed with caution. I just did not want to tangle at this point. I do not remember what that turn and river were, but the hand was checked down. The Asian guy asked if I have a pair. I replied that I did not, and that I just had two high cards.

He stood up and said in a rather loud and obnoxious voice, “I KNEW you had nothing. I could just tell. I have a line on you and I can read you.”

Normally I do not show my cards. However, I sensed an opportunity here. I wanted him to think that, yes indeed, he had a read on me and that all my money was destined to end up in his stack. I showed my AQ to reinforce that I was not lying and to hopefully imprint the thought into his head that he had a line on me. I just needed to get into another hand with him. As fate would have it, I would not have to wait long.

Four hands later, I am under the gun and have:

Normally, I toss “presto” if I have it under the gun. However - I had a feeling about this hand. I raised to $20 as I had been doing all along. The Asian guy called, as did one other player.

The flop:

Oh my! Jackpot! I do not want to spook the Asian. I figure I would play the hand in the exact same way that I played 4 hands prior - I will lead out with a continuation bet of half the pot. I bet $60. The Asian calls, while the third guy folds. This is going to get FUN! I have the fish on the line, lets see if I can reel him in.

The turn is:

There is a possible inside straight draw if he is holding QT or QJ. I doubt he would have called the bet on the flop with either of those holdings. I follow the blueprint of the previous hand - I check. Mr. Asian checks behind me.

The river is:

Hmm, well, this card COULD have completed his straight, but it is unlikely. I need to move in for the kill. The pot stands at about $240. I want to make a bet here that looks like I am trying to steal the pot, but yet small enough that if he re-raises, I can lay it down. I decide that the correct amount is $100, so I push in one black chip.

Mr. Asian thinks for about 15 seconds, then announces, “All-In”.

Wow, did he really catch his straight? I cannot bring myself to believe he would call a bet on the flop with a QT. I put him on a King, or perhaps two pair. I do not think very long before I call.

Mr. Cocky Asian, stands up, turns over his hand and says (get this - this is verbatim), “Two Pair. Kings and Jacks. Ship it baby!”

This is sweet music to my ears! I smiled and turned over my set. I said nothing. I wanted him to look at the cards an discover that he lost all by himself. His reaction was priceless. He mentioned something about a Duck, Truck, Luck, or some other word that sounded similar. (maybe it was Muck?)

I love to manipulate people at the poker table!