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Since coming back from the WSOP, I have decided to put myself in a self-directed “Bankroll Management Class”.  It is not that I lost a lot of money - I just feel that if I want to make a run at playing high-stakes poker, I need to manage my bankroll a little better.  I am not bad at cash management by any means, but like every other poker player on the face of the earth, I fall victim to the dreaded bad run of cards.

Players go into the inevitable valley where no matter what they do, they get beat by every donkey who catches runner-runner for the 87th time this session.  Usually the player wants to move up a level.  Poker players KNOW that they can beat the next level - and make up the losses quicker.  This train of thought is common to poker players who are in a slump - and  I am guilty of it too.

I REALLY wanted to play in the 2008 Pokerstars WCOOP, but my bankroll would not allow it (I deposited $200 and have built it up to $800).  Stardard bankroll management advice says that you must have at least 20-25 buyins for the level of cash games &/or SNGs you want to play, and at least 50 buy-ins for the level of MTTs you want to play.

I could be undiciplined and say, “I have a ‘free’ $600 in my account, I should buy into a $530 event and see what happens”.

While a lot of people would go this route, I maintained my discipline and did not buy in.  With a current bankroll of $800, I could only play SNGs for about $30 and MTTs for about $16.  I decided that I was going to take the challenge of the WCOOP Steps.

I started every time at step 1 for $7.50.  After about 3 weeks of playing, and buying into about 35 step 1 SNGs, I had won the following entries:

Event 1 - $215 NL holdem 6-Max

Event 6 - $530 deepstack NL Holdem

Event 27 - $530 Triple Shooutout (this was actually won in a MTT rebuy tournament, not the steps).

My bankroll was down to about $550.  I am not a big fan of triple shootout tournaments, so I unregistered from Event 27 and took the 530 W$, which I sold to one of the many sites what will buy them.  That replenished my bankroll back to approximately the same amount I had before I enbarked on the Step Frenzy.

Playing prudently within the limits set by my self-imposed “Bankroll Management Class”, I was still able to play in the WCOOP.  I am tempted to unregsiter from both events and sell the resulting W$ to boost my bankroll even more, but who knows - if I can cash in either of these events, the reward would be so much greater.

One of the ultimate poker questions that will stir more debate than anything is:

As a poker player, are you able to ever fold AA preflop?

A little different, but subject to even more debate is:

Is there a situation where you SHOULD fold AA preflop?

As is with most poker questions, the answer is, “it depends”. This question is a LOT different than my blog post where I wrote about folding pocket QQ preflop. With QQ you might be beat. With AA, you know that you are NOT BEAT - at the moment.

In a cash game, anybody would be hard pressed to ever convince me that laying down “Pocket Rockets”, “American Airlines”, “Bullets”, or “Missiles” preflop could be correct. For cash games, I am firmly on one side of the fence.

How about in a tournament? Here, the commonly asked question goes like this:

You are in the World Series of Poker Main Event and in the big blind. On the first hand of the tournament, everybody folds to the small blind, who pushes all-in. You have pocket aces. Do you call or fold?

This question is an extreme. Certainly, nobody in their right mind would push all-in preflop for T20,000 chips to win T75. It’s stupid, and I think just about every poker player would agree to that. But as is with a lot of poker examples, extremes are presented to illustrate a point - and I can appreciate this extreme question. Are you capable (or even willing) to ever fold AA preflop in a tournament? I am not going to comment on this specific situation, because the point of this blog post is not to debate whether folding AA in the big blind on the first hand of the WSOP is correct. I am here to talk about a different situation.

In my last blog post, I wrote about how I was fortunate enough to be going to the WSOP this year. I have not given up on trying to win a seat into the main event. I played in the PokerStars 200 seat guarantee and came up short (2000 out of 8000). I have been toying with the steps, but I have not had any success. I also have been playing in the weekly freerolls. What the heck, right? Its free, why not?

Having played in four of them already, I knew that these tournaments move fast. Typically about 3000 people enter them. The top 50 players get an entry into Round 2 - which is where they give away three free seats. Enter my situation:

Tournament: PokerStars $1M WSOP Giveaway, Round 1

Starting Stack: T1500

Players: About 1500

Players Left: 76

Average Chipstack: About T29,000

My Chipstack: T59,000

Blinds: T2,000/T4,000 + 200 Ante

Before I go any further, lets analyze this.

Players:

There are 76 people left. The top 50 advance to round two. Twenty-six more people must bust out. The remaining 50 people will win a round two seat.

Chipstack:

I have twice the average. Looking at the leader board, I see that I am in 8th place. There are a lot of people under T10,000. With blinds at their current levels, there are a lot of short stacks.

Tournament Composition:

If you have ever played in any of these freerolls, you know that the players are aggressive. A lot of them are low-stakes players who like to think that they are good. When a short-stack goes all-in, there is usually no shortage of people willing to try to take them out.

My Strategy:

I have more than enough chips to fold to the money - which is a seat in the next round. I decide that no matter what, I am going to fold. I click on “Sit Out Next Hand” - until I see

in middle position. Instinctively, I click off the “Sit Out” button. One guy calls and the action is on me. What do I do? Certainly, I have the best hand. I have the largest stack at the table, but there are a couple of people who could really put a dent in my chip count (~T35,000 - T45,000). I want to raise and play the hand. The question is, do I deviate from my strategy to play the hand, or do I fold? If I fold, I virtually guaranteed to win a seat in the next round. If I play, I am risking my (almost) guaranteed seat.

I ponder this for a minute. I can possibly take somebody out, or I can wait for other people to do the dirty work.

I ask myself, “Why am I playing in this tournament?”

The answer is simple enough: “To win a seat in the next round. ”

Does it make sense to risk your (almost) guaranteed seat when there are plenty of other people who are willing to do the dirty work for me?

BEEP

As I get to this point in the analysis, the PokerStars timer beeps at me. I have twelve seconds to make a decision. Do I deviate or do I stick with my game plan?

If I deviate, then I can either limp (to try to trap) or raise to take control of the hand.

BEEP

Why would I risk the prize that I was playing for in order to be macho and try to flog my opponent?

BEEP

In a regular tournament, this situation is a no-brainer. RAISE. The more chips you have, the better chance you have to make the final table, and hence a better payout.

BEEP

In a satellite, your only goal is to win the seat in the next round.

BEEP

First place pays the same as 50th in this tournament

BEEP

Three seconds left.

I click “Fold”, stand up, raise my arms over my head in victory, and shout, “I love this game”.

Three hands later, I was in the second round.

My first blog post was about Chris Ferguson and how he is in the middle of an experiment of trying to turn ZERO dollars into $10,000. It seems like a lot of people have been inspired by this. I regularly hear people in the 5/10 cent no limit tables say how they are trying the same experiment.

As I watch them play, I wonder how far they will actually make it. For that matter, I wonder if I will ever make it. I am a good enough player to accomplish the feat, I have no doubt about that. My problem (which I think will be the downfall of 99% of the people who are trying the same experiment), will be a little thing called patience.

While playing, I could not help but to wonder how long Chris took to build this bankroll. In his tip, he said he was “almost a year into an experiment”. I was curious about this comment. Exactly how long, what did his bankroll look like, and how long did it take for him to move up the ranks? Full Tilt must have had a lot of requests for this information. I logged on to play today and I saw a headline in the game lobby about the Chris Ferguson Challenge. I visited the page, and low and behold, there was some of the information I was looking for.

Most interesting is the graph titled, “The Journey Begins”. For the first seven months, he only breaks $10 once. The page then goes on to say that Chris cashed in a $1 Multi Table Tournament for $104. Even after that, it took nine months to reach the current $9000+ that he has in his account (currently at $9553.34). That is pushing 16 months! I guess I need to have some more patience.

Current Full Tilt Bankroll: $27.78 (down from $31.03 in the last update).

As many of you know, the pros at Full Tilt Poker write tips that are published and sent out via email. One tip in particular (Tip #100) intrigued me to no end.

In that tip, Chris “Jesus” Ferguson discusses how he started with literally ZERO dollars and is in the process of turning that into a $10,000 bankroll. Chris gives some pretty good advice and insight into bankroll management. In a nutshell the requirements are:

1. You can never buy into a Cash Game or Single Table Tournament with more than 5% of your total bankroll, except you are permitted to buy in with at least $2.50 at any time
2. You can never buy into a Multi Table Tournament with more than 2% of your bankroll, except, you are permitted to buy into any Multi Table Tournament for $1.00 or less.
3. If at any time, the money you have on the table is 10% or more of your total bankroll, you must leave the table when the blinds get to you.

These guidelines are pretty good. For the cash games, they allow you to have 20 buy-ins at a level. Twenty buy-ins will allow you to ride out the ups and downs that we all get as poker players. Secondly, this advice is pretty close to what the World Poker Tour Ca$h Boot Camp recommends too.

I began to think about this. If Chris Ferguson can build a $10,000 bankroll from nothing, then there is absolutely NO reason why I cannot do it either. I am a decent poker player, capable of playing the mid-level games (5/10 NL, 30/60 Limit) without being over my head. The problem is that I really despise Full Tilt Poker. My worst beats have been on Full Tilt. With the new gaming legislation in the USA, I am pretty much limited to playing on Poker Stars or Full Tilt. Since I have a bankroll on PokerStars, that pretty much leaves me with Full Tilt.

I wanted to give this experiment my best shot. I did not want to cheat, add more money, or do anything outside the guidelines. Hesitantly, I talked myself into doing this project at Full Tilt. Afterall, if you play correct poker, it does not matter how many bad beats you get. As long as you make the correct decisions, and you get your money in the pot with the best hand, you MUST be a winner over the long-term. That is why you have a 20 buy-in cushion.

I logged into my Full Tilt account to somewhat of a surprise. I had $12 sitting there. Well, I guess I do not have to start from ZERO. I get to start with some cash.

In the first days, I decided to play $1 HORSE tournaments. I quickly figured out that the variance in tournaments is too high. I decided to play my strongest game - Holdem. One anomaly that I found with Chris’ guidelines goes like this: Assume you have a $10 bankroll. You buy into a 5/10 cent no limit game for the allowed $2.50. You are already risking 25% of your bankroll right there. According to Rule #3, you must leave the game. It was apparent that some modifications are needed in the lowest limits. My strategy has been to buy into the 5/10 cent no limit tables with $2.00. If I double up, I think about leaving. If I get to $6, then I absolutely MUST leave and bank my profit. $6 on the table is way too much of a percentage of your bankroll to expose to a bad beat.

My Full Tilt bankroll now stands at $31.03. This experiment is going to be FUN indeed. I will of course keep posting updates as I (hopefully) progress up the ranks.

You can see Chris’ entire tip here